Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data.
Identifieur interne : 000320 ( an2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000319; suivant : 000321Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data.
Auteurs : Natalie M. Linton [Japon] ; Tetsuro Kobayashi [Japon] ; Yichi Yang [Japon] ; Katsuma Hayashi [Japon] ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov [Japon] ; Sung-Mok Jung [Japon] ; Baoyin Yuan [Japon] ; Ryo Kinoshita [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020538
PubMed: 32079150
Affiliations:
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Linton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country></list><tree><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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